We’ve seen an archetype El Nino weather pattern this spring and summer for much of the United States. In the Midwest, Southeast, Ohio Valley and Northeast areas of the country, what you’ve experienced is what you typically experience when El Nino comes calling.
Several folks have asked me what that portends for the rest of the summer and into the fall, specifically as it relates to impact on the corn crop.
Here are a few items I have come across related to the corn crop, from the Van Trump Report. If grain harvests are a key component to your business, his website (linked here) is definitely a good one to follow. I will circle back around to weather and the rest of the year in a bit, but will begin with a look at the corn crop.
The first graphic shows the percentage of the corn crop that is Good to Excellent and the variance from last year at this time
The crops in large corn states Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota are in better condition than they were a year ago, which is a bit surprising to me. On the national average, this year’s condition is 69% good to excellent, which is a one-percent improvement from a week ago but behind last year’s 75% at the same time.
The overall harvest will not likely hit last year’s numbers, but last year was a record harvest and the first time the United States has ever topped 170 bushels per acre. According to Van Trump, the US had only eclipsed 160 bushels per acre on the average on two other occasions. Right now, the call is for an average of 160 to 165 bushels per acre, but the wet conditions in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio have impacted corn in those areas, to the negative.
Iowa is far and away the largest corn producing state in the country, followed by Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota and Indiana. Indiana is a distant fifth, with the top four accounting for the lion’s share of the United States corn harvest.
If we continue to get timely rains and below normal temps, the harvest could get pushed back which would make things interesting. Here is what our friends at MDA are calling for the rest of the summer and fall, which is in line with their predictions for the summer and fall they gave to us back in April
I would expect what you have been experiencing weather-wise to continue on through the summer and into the fall.
One last thing, and it’s worth noting…there are El Nino’s and EL NINO’s. Where last year’s predicted Super El Nino never materialized, this year’s more moderate El Nino prediction is beginning to flex its muscles and is looking a bit…Super. I’ll have a write up later this week as to what that can mean for us related to winter.
— Eric Blake 🌀 (@EricBlake12) July 6, 2015