Propane showed a build this past week, just under 2 million barrels, which was within expectations.
Crude oil showed a draw, the first draw in 17 weeks, which was more bullish than expectations. As such, crude oil prices closed above $60/bbl again.
Propane? Things started stronger before closing lower. Where do we go from here?
Whenever I think I have a bit of a handle on crude this year, another day passes and I am surprised. I DO know this; most of you reading this (at least in the Midwest, Southeast and Ohio Valley) can purchase gas at your preferred terminal or refinery at a profitable price for the coming winter, under $.8000 everywhere I sell and in some cases, under $.7000.
For my clients in Iowa, you can lock in your entire winter in the $.6000’s. Same for most folks in Illinois. For those of you in Indiana, we can do under $.7500 at Lebanon. In Ohio? I can fix a price for the entire winter for you in the upper $.6000’s. For my Dixie clients? Most of you can lock in your pricing in the mid to upper $.6000’s with Apex and Cheraw getting close.
Folks, that ain’t bad.
Here are some inventory points for this week:
Propane inventories continued to build, increasing by 1.8 million this week for a current total of 66.5 million, as reported by the Energy Information Administration as of 5/1/15. Inventory is 31.3 million above 2014’s inventory level at this time and 22 million above the 5-year average of 44.5 million.
Builds on All Regional Inventories: Midwest up 100,000 to 18.4 million; Gulf up 1.1 million to 42.4 million; East up 500,000 to 3.2 million; and West up 100,000 to 2.5 million.
Historical Averages: Midwest is 6.7 million above last year’s inventory level and is up 3.7 million from the 5-year average of 14.7 million. Gulf Coast inventory is 23 million above last year and 16.9 million above the 5-year average of 25.5 million. East Coast is up 400,000 from last year and is up 400,000 from the 5-year average of 2.8 million.
Propane imports were down 25,000 bpd to 86,000 bpd. East Coast was flat at 30,000; Midwest was down 25,000 to 49,000; Gulf was flat at zero bpd and West was flat at 7,000. Propane exports were flat from last week at 470,000 bpd.
Other Inventory Numbers:
Crude Down: -3.9 mm to 1,178.0
Motor Gas Up: +0.4 mm to 227.9
Distillates Up: +1.5 mm to 130.8