n his weekly look at petroleum related activity in the hedge fund space, John Kemp writes that fund positions remained rangebound. From the linked item:
“Cautious production increases by OPEC+ and a strong business cycle upturn have encouraged bullish sentiment about downward pressure on oil inventories and upward pressure on prices in the second half of the year. But even greater bullishness has been limited by the prospect of output increases from shale producers, resurgent coronavirus infections in Europe and India, and the likelihood of continued restrictions on international flying. Crude oil prices are already at or slightly above their long-term average in real terms, which is consistent with a market in the early or mid stages of a cyclical upswing.
Higher prices at this point would probably trigger accelerated drilling and production from the U.S. shale sector plus faster production increases from OPEC+ ensuring prices become progressively unstable above $70.”
If you were looking for clear direction, that is hard to find in these times it would seem.