PROPANE INVENTORIES: Propane built 2M/bbls this past week, which is exactly what the market was looking to see. However, propane is now 6.6M/bbls behind last year’s pace at the same point, as there was a monster 6.4M/bbl build one year ago on the heels of a hurricane.
Total US propane inventories are now at 73.4M vs 79.9M one year ago. Exports were below 800,000/bpd this week for the first time since mid-July:
One year ago next week, propane built 2.3M/bbls. That was for the week ending 9/9/17. That was the last considerable build of last year’s supply cycle, however….we’ll see how this year plays out as we have four more reporting periods to go before the end of September and the usual end of propane build season.
Conway built 1.2M/bbls this past week, adding to its bearish outlook. Conway sits at 25.7M/bbls and well over a million/bbls ahead of last year’s build pace. MTB sits at 37.1M/bbls, whereas last year this week it was at 45.6M/bbls…so a different week, but similar sentiments; the only bulls to be found will reside at MTB…nothing but bears on the loose in Conway…and with warmer than normal temperature anomalies in the forecast for October and possibly November, and the current sentiments favoring warmer than normal risks for December, it’s very difficult to paint any bullish scenarios in Conway.
CRUDE INVENTORIES: Crude drew 4.3M/bbls this past week, which was much stronger than what the API’s showed and stronger than market expectations….crude oil was trading in the red before the report came out, but it hasn’t bounced higher as of yet.
WEATHER: more and more preliminary winter weather forecasts are trickling out. I will put together an aggregation of what I am seeing for tomorrow’s Propane Buzz and will send that out to everyone.