Greetings from the Space Coast!
My family and I are taking a vacation, but I never fully disconnect from the markets…and that’s with approval from the missus!
My communications may be sparse this week, but the markets opened the week softer than they ended last week and several folks stepped into the market today and either added length to this coming winter’s positions or stepped in for the first time. I’ll have my cell phone with me all week for a call or text (FIVE ONE FIVE-505-8000) so DO NOT HESITATE to contact me. Now, here are some items worth noting:
WINTER FORECAST: I will have a longer post either later this week or next week shedding some light on WeatherBELL.com’s winter forecast they released over the weekend. I don’t want to share too much at this point as the forecast is in the subscriber area right now, though they will share it ‘with the public’ very soon.
Here is a snippet:
“From this point, I am confident in enough cold will be across major population areas next winter – another colder than normal winter is in store. Last winter took on the look of the 1976-77 El Niño analog package when everything was added up. This winter’s outlook is more like what I saw in 1977-78.”
That’s from Joe Bastardi, WeatherBELL.com’s Chief Meteorologist. Joe says he will not be able to put forth a winter forecast this early every season, as not every season allows him the opportunity to see so many powerful harbingers of the year to come. But like last year, when they released their winter forecast in April of 2014, he feels confident in the tea leaves to speak in strong terms about the coming season.
He feels the current El Nino could strengthen, but that it will abate come fall and the eastern half of the United States (from the Plains, eastward) will have another cold winter, the third in a row. Pegging where the cold core will set up is very tough, but right now he thinks the cold core will be over the Ohio Valley. Again, I will have more to share later this week, but in my experience Bastardi is one of the best in the business at things like this.
MARKET DIP: Wednesday’s EIA report will be another to watch, not for propane numbers but for crude. We’ll see if there is another modest crude build and what happens with crude stocks at Cushing, OK. If similar to last week on both fronts (modest build overall and a draw in stocks at Cushing) I think we could see crude challenge a north of $60/bbl close. If that happens, the black stuff could move even higher. If the build are greater than expected, I think the pullback I have been expecting could begin.
BUYING DISCIPLINE: I realize the temptation to ‘back away’ from a buy order as the market falls is too great to resist at times…however, it is always a good idea to have a plan in place. If there is a number you are comfortable with, stick with the buy order. Going back further, but a buy order in with smaller volumes and just take more bites. Then once your buy order is met, set another buy order for a few cents lower. It’s a tried and true method and one I have championed since I began wholesaling propane in 1996. I sell to several clients now that I either sold to back in the 1990’s or knew of them back in the 1990’s. Most of them have used this method in parts of three decades and they are still around with strong businesses.
That’s it for now. Time to hit the rack and prepare for the Land of the Mouse on Tuesday! Shoot me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org if you want a ‘fresh’ price quote and I will return it while standing in the endless lines which await me to see Elsa and Anna and the rest of the cast from ‘Frozen’. But that’s what dad’s do for their princesses!