I was surprised to see the Midwest showing a flat inventory number today…the Gulf had another strong build at +1.5.
In talking with some folks, there has been a growing sentiment that inventories are going to balance themselves out this year. We’ll see what happens there, but for some perspective, here is what we saw one year ago on the EIA inventories for the Midwest:
Those builds total 5.3MM in builds…if we use the same time frame from this year, the previous five weeks, Midwest builds have totaled 4.1MM (flat, +500, +1.3, +1.3, +1.3).
What about the next few reports after those, one year ago?
Inventories are building, but we are still down 1.2MM from where we were one year ago in the Midwest and year to year builds over the same five week period are slower this year than last year and the Gulf is still 1.5 below last year.
Are some being lulled into a false sense of confidence? Time will tell. Here is the full inventory report.
Propane inventories continued to build this week, increasing by 2 million to 51.2 million in the week ending 6/13/14, as reported by the Energy Information Administration. Current inventory is now 1.9 million below 2013’s inventory level at this time and 1.7 million above the 5-year average of 49.5 million.
Current Inventories: Midwest was flat at 16.6 million; Gulf was up 1.5 million to 28.7 million; East was up 400,000 to 3.8 million; and West was flat at 2.1 million.
Historical Averages: Mid-Con is down 1.2 million from last year and is down 2.2 million from the 5-year average of 18.8 million. Gulf Coast inventory is 1.5 million below last year and 4 million above the 5-year average of 24.7 million. East Coast is up 300,000 from last year, and is the same as the 5-year average of 3.8 million.
Propane imports were up again this week, increasing 21,000 bpd to 76,000 bpd. East Coast was up 22,000 to 42,000; Midwest was up 1,000 to 22,000; Gulf remains flat at zero and West was down 2,000 to 12,000. Propane exports remained flat at 308,000 bpd.
Other Inventory Numbers:
Crude Down: -0.6 mm
Motor Gas Up: +0.8 mm
Distillates Up: +0.4 mm