Here is some Heating Degree Day (HDD) info I have compiled that I think you may find interesting. Things look very favorable for well above normal HDD demand for the first part of March 2015.
SOUTH BEND, IN: This location recorded 1,350 HDD’s for February 2015 which was an increase over their 1,293 from February of 2014. Jan and Feb HDD’s in 2014 were 2,778, which is the highest combined total for that location dating back to at least 1995. This year’s Jan and Feb total of 2,601 is the second largest number for that time frame dating back to 1995.
ST LOUIS, MO: We’ve seen a decline in HDD’s of 9% this year compared to last winter, with 2,197 recorded over January and February of 2014 to this year’s 2,007. Last year’s 2,197 was the highest Jan-Feb total for St Louis dating back to 1995. Here is where this year ranks:
1. 2,197 (2014)
2. 2,124 (2010)
3. 2,072 (2003)
4. 2,007 (2015)
Let’s just say that this year’s January and February were much colder than what the National Weather Service was forecasting for that region (and pretty much every region) back in November…
MINNEAPOLIS, MN: We’ve seen a decline in HDD’s of 13% this year compared to last winter, with 3,347 recorded over January and February of 2014 to this year’s 2,927. Last year’s 3,347 was the highest Jan-Feb total for Minneapolis dating back to 1995. Here is where this year ranks:
1. 3,347 (2014)
2. 3,045 (1996)
3. 3,037 (2008)
4. 2,979 (2009)
5. 2,949 (1997)
6. 2,924 (2015)
So the Jan-Feb of 2015 is just 3.9% off pace for the second most HDD’s for this time frame over the last 21 winters. Not too shabby.
DES MOINES, IA This year’s 2,481 Jan-Feb HDD’s ranks 11th out of the last 21 winters in Des Moines
CHICAGO, IL: This year’s 2,715 Jan-Feb HDD’s ranks 2nd out of the last 21 winters for Chicago, with last year’s 2,870 holding the #1 position, off just 5% from last winter’s top mark.
INDIANAPOLIS, IN: This year’s 2,447 Jan-Feb HDD’s ranks 2nd out of the last 21 winters for Indianapolis, with last year’s 2,572 holding the #1 position, off just 5% from last winter’s top mark.
COLUMBUS, OH: This year’s Jan-Feb HDD totals of 2,445 is the high water mark for Columbus over the past 21 winters, eclipsing last year’s total of 2,388 by 2%.
RALEIGH, NC: This year’s 1,595 Jan-Feb HDD’s ranks 2nd out of the last 21 winters for Raleigh, NC with 2010’s 1,598 HDD’s the high water mark. So this year’s Jan-Feb was nearly identical to the greatest heating demand Jan-Feb of the last 21 years. It’s also 9% greater than last year’s 1,470.
ATLANTA, GA: This year’s 1,345 is just behind last year’s 1,353 for Jan-Feb HDD’s. The top mark over the past 21 winters was 2010’s 1,515. #4 on the list was 1,289 in 2004.
KANSAS CITY, MO: This year’s Jan-Feb was off 11% year over year and ranks 9th out of the last 21 winters.
TULSA, OK: This is where we are located. Here is how this year’s Jan-Feb HDD’s rank with the coldest of the past 21 years:
1. 1,737 (2010)
2. 1,654 (2014)
3. 1,651 (2011)
4. 1,640 (2015 & 2003)
I won’t break out the data in detail for cities in the Northeast, as this was an all-time winter. For instance, Boston’s 2,479. The next nearest mark in the last 21 winters was 2,341 in 2003. This year was coldest for New York, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and most other locations in the Northeast.
While the December warm up lasted a bit longer than many had thought and the warmup in the second half of January for much of the Plains was significant, this winter is going to be one of the better seasons for heating demand we have seen in the last 21 years for much of the country.
I’d also like to say that Joe Bastardi and the team at WeatherBELL.com did a fantastic job forecasting this winter. In my opinion, they were easily the best group I saw from farther out than anyone else. Many of their prediction themes for this winter were released last April. Very impressive.