Propane inventories experienced another modest build this week, up 1.5 million for a current total of 83.5 million, as reported by the Energy Information Administration as of 6/26/15. Inventory is remains high at 27.3 million above 2014’s inventory level at this time and 23.5 million above the 5-year average of 60 million.
Regional Inventories: Midwest up 600,000 to 22.8 million; Gulf up 800,000 to 52.8 million; East flat from the last 2 weeks at 5 million; and West up 200,000 to 3.0 million.
Historical Averages: Midwest is still 5.3 million above last year’s inventory level and is 2.3 million above the 5-year average of 20.5 million. Gulf Coast inventory is 20.7 million above last year and 20.4 million above the 5-year average of 32.4 million. East Coast is up 800,000 from last year and is up 500,000 from the 5-year average of 4.5 million.
Propane imports were down 8,000 to 75,000 bpd. East Coast down 4,000 to 23,000; Midwest down 6,000 to 40,000; Gulf was flat at zero bpd and West up 1,000 to 12,000. Propane exports are flat from last week at 600,000 bpd.
Other Inventory Numbers:
Crude Up: +2.8 mm to 1,159.1
Motor Gas Down: -1.8 mm to 216.7
Distillates Up: +0.4 mm to 135.8
The crude build was wholly unexpected and the black stuff is off over $2/bbl as of 11am central on July 1st. Propane prices have dipped a bit with that news and with the Iran/Crude situation coming closer to a conclusion, I still feel like there is more downside in crude and therefore more downside in propane.