Yeah, I know…crazy, right? How can you take something like an early and general theme prediction for next winter seriously when it’s February of the existing winter?
I am not going to take this to Vegas, but you’ve read my discussions and explanations related to Sea Surface Temperatures and how they drive North American winters…when warmer waters exist off the Pacific Coasts, that leads to warmer west and colder to the east a good amount of time.
So I took note when I saw Joe Bastardi post this to twitter this week:
The AMO is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. It’s typically defined by Sea Surface Temperatures patters (SST’s) in the North Atlantic. As you can see from the image above, the JAMSTEC model (the primary global source for SST projections) is thinking the waters of the North Atlantic project to be below normal (Colder) for SON201 (September, October and November of 2015). At the same time, it’s pegging SST’s in the Pacific to be WARMER than normal…and that type of set up has typically translated into a cold winter.
Like I said, don’t run off to Vegas just yet….but don’t dismiss data like this out of hand. Nature holds some clues if you know where to look.