National propane inventories stand at 82.9M/bbls after a 3.6M/bbl draw this past week. Inventories are now 22.7M/bbls above where they were one year ago this week, which is the same level as last week as the draw one year ago this week was the same 3.6M/bbl mark. Exports set a new weekly record this week at 1.569M/bpd.
The weather forecast remains bearish for much of the country east of the Rocky Mountains out into the Weeks Two and Four time period, as much of the United States will be experiencing warmer than normal temperatures.
The cononovirus fears and quarantine of over 50M Chinese citizens has impacted stock markets around the world, casting a shadow of global economic fears for the world’s second largest economy and concerns of a trickle down effect globally. For our purposes in the world of energy demand, crude oil has experienced some softening due to these greater economic fears (less demand for oil due to the quarantine and possible contagion impacts were the virus to spread)
In all, combined with a crude build over over 3M/bbls today, most energy fundamentals remain bearish. We are nearly to the month of February and have over 80M/bbls of propane in inventory. Thus, the outlook relative to propane fundamentals remains remains rather bearish, barring any unforeseeable geopolitical interruptions that would cause crude oil values to spike.