A VERY hot dome of heat is in store, and the BAM team also takes a look out into week’s three and four in today’s forecast video.
Here is BAM’s updated July forecast:
PROPANE PRICES: OPEC announced that it would increase production in the coming months to meet global demand, but their pledge to increase production by 1M/bpd looks to be roughly 700,000/bpd in reality, according to market analysts. Crude traders have viewed this as a bullish outcome, less than hoped for production increases and as of 10AM Central Time, crude oil is up over $2/bbl. Propane prices are moving up with it. I will have a great deal more to say on these matters on Monday.
This comes after Conway and Mt Belvieu were off roughly one-half cent per gallon on the closing daily average yesterday compared to Wednesday. Today’s closing averages should be stronger.
WINTER OF 2018-2019 DISCUSSION: Michael Clark from BAMWx.com joined us again this week to follow up on last week’s discussion on the impacts of Modoki El Nino winters on the United States.
To refresh your memory, Modoki El Ninos have the warm water pool based in the central Pacific Ocean along the equator, where a traditional or ‘canonical’ El Nino sees the pool of warmer water either across the entire equatorial basin (as was the case in 2016-2017) or off the western coast of South America. Here is a graphic that shows a general representation of each. SST stands for Sea Surface Temperatures, where red shading is warmer than normal:
Clark and his team went digging through past years to come up with several instances (winters) where a Modoki El Nino set up was in place, which is what his team (along with others in the meteorological community) is expecting from this point in time for the coming winter. The image below shows the winters where we experienced a Modoki El Nino, and the highlighted years are the most similar to the conditions Clark and BAM see at present on the planet and what might be expected.
The Winter of 2009-2010 isn’t too long ago, and that was a very good winter for folks east of the Rocky Mountains, by and large is a December-January-February blend of the three highlighted winters Clark’s team feels most resembles what may take place this winter:
Below is an image of some weather data I compile, which I will update this summer to account for the last two winters. The numbers are a combined January and February Heating Degree Day total for the listed years. So if you see 2010 listed beneath the far left column, that is the winter of 2009-2010, showing the January and December combined HDD’s. I have various locations listed along the top. As you can see, the extreme Northeastern portions of the US, along with the Western United States, missed out on the cold for those years. You can also reference this data with some other winters Clark and his team listed on the Modoki years graphic above. The green shaded cells means colder than normal, where the red shaded cells means warmer than normal. The deeper the color, the more anomalous to normal that period was for that city/area. Should you want to see a larger file with this information, email me at jon at propanebuzz dot com and I can send it to you.
Here is the interview with Clark on these topics, and I hope his information and explanation help to round out your understanding on this topic and the possibilities that are on the table for this upcoming winter. All in all, the early signals favor a colder than normal winter for a good swath of the country, east of the Rockies. Folks in the West are more at risk for warmer than normal temps…keeping in mind this is just June, and things can change. But the early signs, based on the two most powerful drivers of weather on earth (Ocean temps and Solar strength) are showing their cards.