Crude oil took it on the chin again Wednesday after another weekly stock build posted in the EIA report…despite the build being within the range of expectations, there was an afternoon selloff in WTI crude and it closed at $65.31/bbl.
That’s the lowest daily close since August 1st, which saw crude close at $65.01. After hours trading on Wednesday afternoon has WTI down below $65/bbl. The last sub $65/bbl close was back on June 11th, so crude is heading into bearish territory.
MTB propane should close with a daily average around $.8525, or just slightly off from yesterday’s closing average of $.8544. Conway is looking to close around $.7210, up slightly from yesterday but on very little trading volume.
NOAA released their November temperature and precipitation probability forecast, and the temperature overlay looks very similar to what BAM has, which I sent out this morning:
Here is their precip outlook:
Farmers are still struggling to get out the corn and soybean crops. There are still a LOT of acres to harvest in some of the largest corn producing areas:
To give the Iowa number some context, the state planted roughly 13.3M acres of corn this year…so 77% of the crop still needs to come out and tomorrow is November 1st….that’s late. Illinois is likely at a similar percentage. Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota and Indiana are the five largest corn producing states in the country and all are lagging well behind.
While grain drying isn’t going to break any records this year, this will certainly add to the totals…and while the 2009 grain drying year was one of the biggest on record, the 2009 harvest went well into November and then into December in some parts of the country…the 2009-2010 analog year has been a very popular one amongst forecasters for the last several months…the overall footprint of the weather pattern for this October and November is shaping up to be similar.
If the rest of the winter follows suit, and I am NOT saying this is a forecast, here is what Dec-Jan-Feb for 2009-2010 looked like, temperature wise…and the only reason I am showing this is because the 2009-2010 analogs keep coming up a lot:
Here is what BAM has for their official Dec-Jan-Feb forecast for 2018-2019, which I shared with subscribers back on 10-15: