See the image below from the JAMSTEC…it’s a Japanese model forecasters use to track El Nino conditions…this year’s ‘brand’ of El Nino is referred to as a ‘Modoki’, a Japanese term for ‘similar, but different’. Traditional El Nino’s involve ocean temperature anomalies in the Eastern Pacific. The Modoki years involve ocean temperature anomalies in the Central Pacific, which creates different atmospheric impacts for the United States. This is the type of El Nino event we have been experiencing this year and will continue to experience.
The image shows what the JAMSTEC is forecasting for March, April and May; below average temps across much of the United States. The line below the image is from WeatherBELL.com analyst Joe Bastardi, who has been predicting this for the ‘spring’ for some time:
Also, there is a ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming’ event forecast in about 10 days over the north pole, which can weaken the Polar Vortex and cause it to split. February is still looking to be cold on the models. The warmup that the Plains have been experiencing is coming to an end, or already has in many places. It was 80 degrees here in Tulsa yesterday, today it won’t get out of the 50’s and this weekend we’ll be in the 30’s.