Good day to you!
Here are a few items on November before we get to the winter chatter:
No hope of much warmth east of Rockies for next 10-days. Deep freeze stays in place, reinforces, gets worse. pic.twitter.com/owLjfJbKWi
— Ryan | weather.us (@RyanMaue) November 12, 2014
This, from MDA:
This link takes you to an item from FirstHandWeather.com and myfriend Matthew Holiday, who invokes a term that should be familiar to those of you who have been reading my missives the last several months:
“This first push of Arctic air that is currently sweeping across the nation is the first of many Arctic blasts that will occur this month. This colder pattern is not due entirely to the polar vortex but is instead due to what is referred to as an omega block. This omega block signature occurs when there is a low-high-low pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere. In this particular case, a huge ridge has pumped up over Alaska giving them unseasonably warm temperatures while troughing surrounds this ridge on both sides. A deep trough in currently located over the United States, and these kind of setups can stay around for weeks.”
In case you have forgotten or are new to this blog, here is an illustration of what an Omega Block in the Pacific Northwest means to us in the winter:
SHIFTING GEARS: Let’s take a look at the model runs projecting temps around Christmas:
Christmas is on the CFSV2 Radar. Left temps Dec 21-26 right 4 members with snowfall forecast ( max depth) pic.twitter.com/1w7QwnLXux
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) November 12, 2014
Next, MDA’s Dec & Jan temp forecasts & expected above average HDD’s:
Moving on to what WeatherBELL just released on 11/12, their 90 Day Outlook:
Here is their Snowfall Forecast:
Lastly, this snippet from Joe Bastardi of WeatherBELL: “Please keep in mind our forecast right now positions us between what my biggest worry has been, the extreme cold winter event similar to the great winters of the 1970s (even worse than last year) and a more or less normal event.”
It’s looking more and more likely that this winter will be positioned between a cold son of a gun for the eastern two-thirds of America, or no warmer than normal…which is a darned good hand to be playing for us all. Thanks for reading.