This far ahead of winter, you look for the big drivers of climate and what they are telling us. You also know that things can change with so much time, but things such as sea surface temperatures are tougher to chance in such a ‘short’ amount of time.
We are seven months away from Christmas, so winter isn’t that far away, and things like sea surface temperatures (SST’s) begin to carry even more weight.
Take a look at the latest projection from the JAMSTEC, who uses SST data to project macro level temperature outlooks. This is for the December, January, February time frame (DJF 2015/2016):
If you would like a further explanation, give this link at FirstHandWeather.com a read. It’s a more in-depth explanation of the JAMSTEC and in layman’s terms, too.
The El Nino is very much on the table, but not every El Nino is the same. El Nino years can lead to warmer than average winters across the northern tier of the country, but there are too many factors at play right now to get a fine tuned read. For now, it’s looking at the macro and things like the JAMSTEC are the looking-glass we have to peek through.
It’s saying another cold winter in the United States.