Weather Models Warm, But Polar Vortex Looms

Good morning!

The American and European weather models continue to show warming trends out into the Week Two period.

However, modeling continues to stay on an impending perturbation of the stratospheric Polar Vortex, and a split that would push the coldest air in the planet down towards the Continental United States (CONUS).   If the latter happens, those warmer week two model runs are going to bust…and if you have been a faithful and consistent reader of this blog for the past two months, you will recall at the warming the models have been consistently forecasting at week two just hasn’t materialized all that often, or if it has, it has been more muted than originally forecast.

I realize this last tweet is a bit heady, but it’s important to acknowledge the research that some forecasters put into their craft. I could sit back and look at model data and put out a ‘forecast’ based on what the computer says will happen. Honestly, I could do that, as I subscribe to such services that grant me access to the models and I can then share them in GIF form. I come across a number of ‘weather enthusiasts’ like myself who do just that and try to position themselves as some sort of expert.

However, that’s just silly and it’s also disingenuous. What I try to do is be a conduit between the real experts and you, and explain things in ways that are easier for us all to understand. So even though Clark’s post from above is quite technical, it underscores that the best in that field perform copious amounts of research to learn the ‘why’ behind the ‘what’, and then they make their forecasts based on research and not just what the models spit out.

When a model aligns with research, that’s a good feeling. When a model does not align with research, that’s when the tough calls are made…and BAM, for one, has gone out on a limb several times this winter, producing forecasts that fly in the face of the latest modeling.

We still have to see how things play out, but I wouldn’t go betting the farm on the warmth happening. If the Polar Vortex does not get pushed down into the CONUS then the warmer risks are probably stronger. But for now, the Polar Vortex is predicted to come south.  The map below is for February 12th.   Don’t worry about what the values are…just know that if this occurs, it’s likely going to be very cold east of the Rockies.


Jon Miller
Marketing Representative for NGL Supply Wholesale in Tulsa Oklahoma. Follow me on twitter @PropaneBuzz

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