More bullish data on top of supplies…the weather outlook continues to follow historically cold patterns.
If you’ve been getting my emails since the summer, you know I was fairly bullish on this winter. I’m a big believer in sunspot data (as I have shared in previous emails) and the signs there pointed to a cold winter…as the spots were uncharacteristically absent for a solar maximum period. So far this winter (which hasn’t technically begun yet), we’ve seen evidence of it being a flat out bear.
-67% of the lower 48 states are covered in snow as of December 9th, the highest percentage this early in the season, ever. More snowpack means less heat/friction resistance when the Arctic blasts come barreling out of the north, meaning colder air can go farther south at low temps.
-The 15 day temperature forecast for Chicago has six days of 14 degrees below normal, four additional days of at least eight below normal and every day at least two degrees below normal.
Check out the snow depth in the United States for the same date (December 9th) 2012 & 2013 found on NOAA (click on the images to enlarge):
December 9th, 2012
Now, December 9th, 2013
In case you don’t know, the entire state of Oklahoma and 30% of Texas is not normally covered in snow on December 9th. Not hardly.
There isn’t much relief in sight and even if you are not in one of the snow packed areas, your propane prices are going to be affected, to the upside. DON’T BE SHORT RIGHT NOW.