It’s still a bit too early for meteorologists to toss their collective hats into the winter forecasting ring, but there are some interesting things going on with the weather in our country that can have some impact on our industry over the next 90 days.
As many of you know, I keep tabs on dozens of meteorologists, via twitter or other means. Our company subscribes to a commercial weather service, and last Wednesday, July 26th, they projected this for August temps across the country:
For those of us with grain drying aspirations, that was not a good look.
However, this spring and summer exhibited a pattern….we had cooler than normal temps around Mother’s Day, then things warmed up in the latter half of June by and large. We then experienced some well below normals leading up to and on Independence Day, before the second half of July turned into a blow torch for much of the Corn Belt.
This leads us to today, along with the last couple of days and what looks to be a similar look for the first half of August:
— Ed Vallee 🌽 Vallee Wx Consulting 🌾 (@EdValleeWx) August 1, 2017
That looks a lot different from the first image I shared, and that August forecast from the unnamed weather service is going to struggle mightily to verify.
— Kirk 🌽 Hinz | BAM Weather (@Met_khinz) August 1, 2017
BAMWx.com is calling this for August:
There are multiple meteorologists who are already highlighting early September as a possible early frost period for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
There are some interesting analog years out there when we have experienced weather conditions like this in the past, but after the last two years, I am a little burnt on analogs so I am not going to write or say much about them right now. However, I do want to draw your attention to something. CLICK ON THIS LINK to see a three minute video that does talk about potential analog years. The video is from Michael Clark of BAMWx.com, a commercial weather service with several meteorologists on staff, and I have linked the video to begin at the point I want you to see…it’s just three minutes, but please take the time to look at it, watch and listen…I think you will be glad you did, as it holds some exciting possibilities for this fall…and even into this winter.
Also from BAMwx, here are a pair of temperature projections they have arrived at for October and November
By the way, I have no ties with BAMwx. I like those guys, along with other mets like Gary Lezak and his Weather2020.com product. I saw that BAMwx is offering a free trial of their services next week (August 7th through 11th), which I would encourage you to check out. You can sign up at THIS LINK.
Also, there are some activities in the tropics which may lend for some timely rainfall over the next month into the heartland and eastern corn belt…there are some calls for a high pressure ridge setting up in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the Eastern United States seaboard.
With some of the projections from the tropics, in conjunction with a high pressure ‘ridge bridge’, and being that high pressure systems rotate clockwise, such elements cause tropical storms to curve up into Texas, Louisiana and Alabama, and then up into Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. If you’d like to learn a little more about that, click on THIS LINK to a point in the aforementioned video from BAM where they explain it briefly.
And OH, HEY…lookie here:
Latest Calibrated ECMWF EPS highlighting a 30-40% risk for tropical cyclogensis to take place over the Main Development Region in next 15d pic.twitter.com/wJD5zUhkGT
— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) August 1, 2017
I am NOT saying grain drying glory days are here again. I AM saying favorable conditions remain on the table, and in the forecast, to bring about better grain drying than we have seen in the past two years. Then again, it wouldn’t take much to be better than those years.
The corn crop itself is not as ‘healthy’ as it was one year ago
— Freese-Notis Weather (@FreeseNotisWx) July 31, 2017
For this graphic, the image on the left is corn, the one of the right is beans. It shows year over year ‘Good to Excellent’ ratings decline and increases, by state…as you can see, the corn crop in most states is nowhere near as good as it was a year ago:
— Darin D. Fessler (@DDFalpha) July 31, 2017
ONE LAST THING…
A client of mine sent me some photos of their oak trees last week…he lives in eastern Ohio, and he said ‘The oak trees are going to be loaded with acorns this year’ and that over the course of the last two years, there were little to none in their area. Now, some folks will tell you this is a harbinger for a cold winter, as the tree provides the abundance for the critters to stock up and put on the extra fat they will need to make it through the colder than normal winter ahead.
Others will tell you that growing behaviors are actually the result of the weather from two to three years ago….
Me? I’d like to believe the acorn theory has legs. I’d like to believe the woolly worms can tell us something. I’d like to believe squirrels do offer winter hints depending on how high they build theirs nests in the trees. I’d like to believe that forks or spoons inside the fruit of Persimmon trees offer clues about the season to come.
The Kansas City Royals and the Chicago Cubs have won the past two World Series titles. Anything is possible!