Weather Buzz for 11/28/17

Good morning! I hope that you all had a great Thanksgiving Holiday…now…back to work!

WEATHER: Today’s offering will focus on the upcoming weather pattern, one that is going to be very extreme..on both ends.

First, the warmth. We are entering a warmer spell, one that has been forecast for several weeks. While we don’t want to see the much aboves we are going to see across much of the eastern half of the nation, one can take some ‘satisfaction’ in the fact that the weather models saw this warm up coming. The satisfaction component is that we can begin to place more value in what the models are showing down the road…and what they are showing down the road is cold.

This warm up was expected to be transient; it will come and then it will be gone. The cold that is coming after the warm appears to have a longer life expectancy. I will share a few tweets here, from the oldest to the newest. The first tweet is from two days ago.

The following tweets are from 15 hours ago through this morning, oldest to newest:

The following tweets are from the last three hours

The maps represented in this tweet above from Dr Maue represent December 8th, or a week from this coming Friday.

One last tweet couplet here, that has to do with Europe:

The importance here is if we have a colder European winter, as well as in Asia, their propane needs stay strong…which means the trading arb can open up, which means United State export volumes stay strong…which puts pressure on our inventories, which will put upward pressure on the prices you will pay for gas.

Obviously, these are forecasts…we need them to verify, but most every weather outlet I follow, all of the videos I watch on a daily basis, the 100+ pieces of weather related tidbits I consume each day are all calling for this cold snap in North America by the end of next week, and that it will have some life.

So we wait for tomorrow’s EIA report, Friday’s OPEC meeting and then next Wednesday’s EIA report, which will be the last for November liftings.

I think there is a good chance we will enter December under 70M/bbls of inventory, which is a threshold we didn’t cross last winter until January the 20th.

Jon Miller
Marketing Representative for NGL Supply Wholesale in Tulsa Oklahoma. Follow me on twitter @PropaneBuzz

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