Those of you who have been receiving my missives for the last year or two may remember these blog posts I put together
The gist is the amount of snow that falls in Siberia before the start of November might be a tell to the type of winter snows we can get in North America. The study/theory put together by Dr Judah Cohen appears to have an accuracy rate of 75%.
After this past winter in the Northeast, Dr Cohen is taking a bit of a victory lap
For the uninitiated, here is what Dr Cohen does:
Each October, Cohen looks at the amount and the rate of snowfall in Siberia that month to determine how snowy the eastern United States and Europe will be come winter. “The snow cover is the most efficient reflector of sunlight out into space, so more snow cover creates dense air masses that stay close to the ground,” he says. That cold, dense air spreads over the North Pole into North America and westward into Europe.
Cohen proceeds to go into more detail than the average human can stand, or understand, with terms like “The Aleutian Low” and “The Siberian High.” But for him and us, the bottom line is that this past October was Siberia’s second most extensive snowfall on record, and Cohen knew the implications for Boston and other East Coast cities.
Here was the gist of Dr Cohen’s forecast for the winter we just had, before it happened:
‘It’ll be an active and interesting winter. We’re predicting above-normal precipitation for right along the East Coast. So a wet winter. But I’m especially bullish over the possibility of an above-normal snowfall.’
I’ll keep using his annual research as I offer up my aggregation of weather predictions…but he has as pretty good batting average.