In the first item linked, they did a fair job of producing a balanced piece, citing differing views on the back end…the two sources they cite are two that I follow closely related to winter forecasts; Dr Judah Cohen & WeatherBell.com.
Cohen has the Siberian Snow Cover theory in powering the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation while WeatherBell nailed last winter’s forecast, primarily using historic analogs and what the European model was showing.
The first article also reminds us that NOAA whiffed on last winter’s extremes as well as whiffing on 2009-2010. We all have hits and misses, but as I have said, the modeling that NOAA uses (the American GFS) has had a rough few years.
The El Nino makes things trickier, but most of the models seem to favor the El Nino being weak, and the warm waters in an area that won’t stop ridges forming and setting in off Alaska…I know I repeat some of these things and perhaps I am being a bit stubborn…it will be fascinating to me to watch this winter play out to see who got it right.
At any rate, for those of you in the Southeast, EVERY winter forecast model I have seen is calling for below average temps in your region.
More Siberian Snow: If you don’t want to take my word for it, here’s another weather head talking about the Siberian snow pile up…this snippet was real interesting:
Siberian snow cover is already rapidly expanding, and based on forecast model guidance, that trend is going to continue throughout the rest of the month. Because the SAI considers daily snow extent values, Cohen and his team will not make any predictions until after this month is over. Remember how cold the 2013-14 winter was?? Well, October 2013 had the 4th highest snow cover extent over Eurasia (Siberia) since 46 years of records began. As of October 13, 2014, 12.2 million square kilometers of Eurasia were covered by snow compared to 10.8 million square kilometers around this same time last year. We’re already way ahead of what even occurred last year!
In lighter news, the Wooly Worms are predicting a cold winter…and the Persimmons in Georgia are showing spoons, so get out your shovels as a cold and wet winter is on the way…the Farmer’s Almanac already called for a repeat of last year’s challenges.
Demand in grain drying looks like it will stack up at roughly the same time from Ohio up through Minnesota…something that was not the case a few weeks back but the wet weather in regions that were ahead of others has conspired to bunch the harvest up…some regions are very wet right now and there is a mounting fear that the corn drying season will be bleeding into the home heating season, as it did in 2009…