I want you to keep one thing in mind, something you already know; the farther out the projection, the more chance for error.
That said, most every weather outlet and/or service I follow is saying the same thing; the rest of February is going to be bad to brutal for much of the eastern half of the United States. Below, I share bits from WeatherBELL.com, TheWeatherCentre.com Blog and WSIEnergy.
This first one show GFS (The American Model) projections for the end of February in the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, temperatures listed are in Fahrenheit relative to average temperatures for that time of year. The second is from another source for the same time frame. This link will explain the ‘why’ surrounding this expected outbreak:
Save this for posterity- 12z GFS delivers historic cold to Plains, Midwest in very long range. Incredible. pic.twitter.com/0WfaWwjWrH
— The Weather Centre (@TheWxCentre) February 13, 2015
12Z GEFS is highlighting another significant U.S. cold wave during the 11-15 day period; 50 CONUS HDDs above average! pic.twitter.com/E1FHewLqcw
— Weather Co Energy (@WxCoEnergy) February 13, 2015
Here are some expectations for the upcoming weekend:
Outbreak this weekend Miss east coldest of the winter UNTIL NEXT WEEK! pic.twitter.com/WIq7AgTahu
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) February 13, 2015
Here is a look at expectations for next week:
Next Wed-Fri — after likely powerful ice/snow/winter storm + severe weather event for South … more Arctic blasts pic.twitter.com/191Tr7ZLbY
— Ryan | weather.us (@RyanMaue) February 11, 2015
Here is a day by day look over the next 16 days:
If next 16-days verified from GFS, then you'll be really really tired of February. Arctic blasts on repeat. pic.twitter.com/p4oOsS7EJE
— WeatherBELL (@weatherbell) February 13, 2015
February has already been a brutal month for the Northeast. The first half of January was colder in the Contiguous 48 states than the same time frame last year. November saw record temps for two thirds of the month. The rest of February looks very cold for most regions except Southern Florida. Expectations are there for a below normal March and elongated winter.
When all is said and done, this winter has a real shot to verify close or beyond what I shared with you back in August and October when laying out expectations. It should be a fun ride to the end!