MDA is one of the largest, or rather, most subscribed to commercial weather companies in the energy industry.
They accurately called each of the past two winters, two of the warmest on record.
For this winter, they are sticking with their early call for a ‘colder than normal’ winter.
The initial MDA Weather Services forecast calls for a slightly colder than normal winter overall, with a focus of below normal temperatures in the Midwest…In total, the forecast from December to February features 2635 GWHDDs, which is slightly higher than both the 30- and 10-year normals. It is also much colder than the past two winters, which hold the top spots for warmest winters on record since 1950.
MDA and several other outlets and meteorologists are of the opinion that we will experience a La Nina event this winter, more on the weaker side than the stronger side. As seen in this next graphic, a weak to moderate strength La Nina typically produces colder conditions than a stronger La Nina:
In looking through my heating degree day data dating back to 1995, where I combine January and February HDD’s, the majority of La Nina years have been good for the home heating industry. The analog year most often mentioned so far this year is 2007-2008. That winter was colder than normal in the Midwest and Ohio Valley but had a warmer than average result for the Northeast.
In case you missed some of the more detailed weather write ups and forecasts from recent weeks, here are the links:
I eagerly await Gary Lezak’s (Weather2020.com) prediction, and will share his thoughts once he goes on the record, in addition to a few other services I typically follow.