EIA DAY: 4M/bbl Draw, Industry Braces for More Cold

EIA REPORT:  The EIA’s showed a 4M/bbl DRAW for the week ending 1/19.  This is the same draw we had one year ago this week, but the next two weeks in 2017 had draws of 5.6M and 6.8M/bbls.

Exports were down 215,000/bpd to 722,000/bpd, while demand was 230,000/bpd stronger than one week ago, at 1.77M/bpd. Production was down 61K/bpd.

Pricing at the hubs is very near where it was to begin the day…as all eyes turn towards the weather that awaits in February.

WEATHER: MDA, soon to be rebranded as Radiant Solutions, has updated their February forecast. You may recall me pointing out last week how their February projections from 1/17 had the same overlay and look as the February projection they issued in late August, which is pretty incredible. Today, they have made that already cold projection even colder:

As you can see, the projected 828 GWHDD’s are 7% colder than the 30 year norm. If this foreast verified, we’d see 42.02% MORE GWHDD’s this February than last year’s all-time record warm February total of 583.

That is incredible, as is the projections for the duration of the cold spell that is going to cover over half of the United States for a month or more.

But how about MDA actually going more bullish on their call…it calls to mind this scene from ‘The Rounders’ when Teddy KGB ‘Bet it all’.

Sorry, I just love that GIF file and have wanted to use it for a long time.

Regardless, confidence is growing ever higher that a long-lasting, colder than normal period arrives at the end of the first week of February.

Jon Miller
Marketing Representative for NGL Supply Wholesale in Tulsa Oklahoma. Follow me on twitter @PropaneBuzz

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