Here is what I am looking at to start this market day
— Bloomberg (@business) November 13, 2014
With so much propane inventory and this bearishness in crude oil, marketers really need this cold weather to keep the absolute bottom from falling out of propane. As you know, the forecasts are supportive for another great winter so I don’t think we’ll see that bottom happen this winter, although further price drops are likely until we see big inventory draws and pipeline demand increases.
Where we are right now is retailers are full, having learned lessons from last winter. That is great, but one of the coldest Novembers of all time is going to be a huge part of this year’s supply story before all is said and done. If the winter sets in and stays, then this could turn out to be one of the most laborious home heating seasons in at least a decade and I am talking about from International Falls, Minnesota to Savannah, Georgia.
For the folks in the Northeast who have felt left out on bullish weather forecasts, here is something for you.
— NBC10 Philadelphia (@NBCPhiladelphia) November 13, 2014
It’s Glen Schwartz’s forecast for the Philly area, and he is considered the best meteorologist in the region. In the item, he lists the primary factors that drive North American winters, specific to his area of the country.
If you have been reading my items, you’ll be familiar with these factors; El Nino, Snowfall in Siberia, North Pacific drivers, Sea Surface Temps, Arctic Oscillation, etc. His takeaway prediction:
*COLDER THAN LAST WINTER
*COLDEST SINCE 2002-03
*>40” SNOW 4th of last 6 YEARS
*FEWER DAYS WITH SNOW THAN LAST WINTER
*AT LEAST 2 STORMS OF 12”+
*POSSIBLY MORE SNOW SOUTH OF PHILA.
I am sure many of you may be thinking ‘ENOUGH ALREADY! YOU’VE BEEN WRITING MANY OF THE SAME THINGS FOR WEEKS ON END WITH THE WEATHER FORECAST SHOWING COLD!’
First, please don’t shout. Second, consensus is our friend…especially when we are on the doorsteps of winter. Consensus helps to create confidence for folks who are running the projected November HDD numbers and are arriving at this conclusion:
‘I may run out of contract in early February and February is being projected to be colder than an outhouse door in Fargo in February’
If you haven’t run increased November HDD impact on your contract status, it might be a good idea. With where pricing is right now all across the country, it’s to to imagine any of these numbers hurting anyone…they are very attractive…and safe. I will follow up with a pricing email shortly after the inventories come out this morning. If you’d like to take a look at locking something in before the inventories come out, shoot me a note.
Here are a few more items on the way out:
CONUS now below 30 year climate normal for November. Going to bottom out during next 10 days. pic.twitter.com/ldB4kSkVrr
— Ryan | weather.us (@RyanMaue) November 13, 2014
Impressive strato warming at 10mb level through the next 10+ days. Siberian snow cover getting to work? pic.twitter.com/SlHFGmGDjL
— Anthony Sagliani (@anthonywx) November 13, 2014
Stratospheric warming helps the Arctic Oscillation go negative..which ‘opens the refrigerator door’ for the cold in The States.
Hey, do you want a White Christmas?
Yo Yo Yo Ho Ho Ho CFSV2 for 5 days centered on Christmas.Temps left,4 members on deepest snowcover in period,right pic.twitter.com/dm88sMFrkK
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) November 13, 2014