The weather data I am looking at shows a very strong cold push into the majority of the Great Plains and Eastern United States; the severity of the cold is what is in disagreement right now between the American and European weather forecasting models. The European models have been more accurate in recent years due to more computing power than the American model has.
The European model is not as bullish as the American model as far as depth and breadth of the cold..the American model is on the left, the European is on the right for the 11-15 day outlook (click to enlarge):
JANUARY: Every forecast source I follow is pointing to a cold January. Noone is stepping out on a limb as far as intensity predictions go, but Ihaven’t seen anyone calling for anything warmer than normal temps…and normal is good. I still believe we’ll be below normal in most of the United States.
MIDWEST: I’ll stick with my prediction that we’ll see $1.60 or higher at Conway in January and or February. I know that people have bought north of $1.80 near Minneapolis today
TEPPCO: I know for a fact Belieu +$.7000 has been sold off the pipleline in Selkirk, NY. I also know cargo ships are coming in to help supply the demand with a COST of over $2.20…and in some instances, well over.
DIXIE: The Hattiesburg differential is hovering close to $.20 cents. Had heard whispers this week of allocation, but as of yet nothing on that end.
In any of these areas, I would feel comfortable owning gas at current numbers and locking it in through the end of January.