The inventory reports came out today and they were bullish, as feared. Prices are up around a penny and a half. I just don’t see any fundamental bears out there. I may come to sound like a broken record this month and next, but it’s what I see and therefore believe as it relates to the markets.
Back in early August, I showed you some possible upside that existed in propane as a relationship it its historic tie to crude…the percentage was down in the upper 30’s and now we’ve seen things move to the upper 40’s, so that has been taking place.
It’s now the middle of August and we just had an inventory build nationally of less than 100,000? That’s bullish. I fear of strains on the Conway system in October and November with grain drying colliding with heating season. The wet barrel crunch factors are still there and will be, so we could see some spikes everywhere.
Here is the inventory rundown.
Propane inventories only gained 100,000 to 61.9 million in the week ending 8/9/13, as reported by the Energy Information Administration. That’s 7.1 million below last year’s inventory level at this time and 300,000 below the 5-year average of 62.2 million.
Mid-Con showed the only gains with a build of 600,000 to 21.5 million. Gulf fell 600,000 to 34.7 million, East was flat at 3.2 million and West was up 100,000 to 2.5 million.
Historical Averages: Mid-Con is down 5.3 million from this time last year and is down 3.5 million from the 5-year average of 25 million. Gulf coast inventory is 800,000 above last year and 4.6 million above the 5-year average of 30.1 million. East Coast is down 2.7 million from last year and is 1.2 million below the 5-year average of 4.4 million.
Propane imports continued to drop this week, down 16,000 to 57,000 bpd. East Coast was up 6,000 to 17,000; Midwest was down 22,000 to 36,000; Gulf remains flat at zero and West was flat at 4,000. Propane exports remained flat at 252,000 bpd.
Other Inventory Numbers:
Crude Down: -2.8 mm
Motor Gas Down: -1.2 mm
Distillates Up: +2.0 mm
- Crude oil – Bullish draw and still NO Upside (commoditytrader.com)
- US Refineries Are Running At High Levels – Analysis (albanytribune.com)
- US Gasoline Consumption: What Direction Is It Heading? – Analysis (albanytribune.com)